PREDIKSI EKONOMI INDONESIA DI TENGAH KETIDAKPASTIAN GLOBAL

Abstrak

This research aims to examine the macroeconomic impact on Indonesia from shocks amid global economic policy uncertainty, using annual time series data from 1990 to 2022 with the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method for time series data analysis and Impulse Response Function to identify shocks given by each endogenous variable to other endogenous variables. The findings indicate a causal relationship between exchange rates and inflation, as well as vice versa, with a P-value < 0.05. In the VAR model analysis, global economic uncertainty significantly affects exchange rates and has a small impact on inflation and economic growth. The Impulse Response Function reveals that global economic uncertainty on inflation responds negatively to shocks in the first and second periods but gradually becomes positive and stabilizes in subsequent periods. Global economic uncertainty on exchange rates does not experience shocks and tends to increase positively over the next 10 periods. Meanwhile, global economic uncertainty on economic growth responds positively to shocks in the first and second periods, with a subsequent decrease but not significant, stabilizing until the 10th period. This further indicates that, through macroeconomics, global uncertainty shocks can still have significant impacts and substantial losses for Indonesia.